Running Time Predictor
Predict your race times for different distances based on a recent race.
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Predict Your Race Finish Times
Our Running Time Predictor uses the Riegel formula to estimate your potential finish times for various race distances based on a recent performance, helping you set realistic goals.
What is a Running Time Predictor?
A Running Time Predictor is a tool for runners that estimates their potential performance in one race distance based on a recent result from another. For example, it can use your 5K time to predict your marathon finish time. It's a valuable tool for setting ambitious but achievable goals for new race distances and for creating an appropriate pacing strategy for training.
How It Works: The Riegel Formula
The calculator is based on the mathematical endurance model developed by Peter Riegel:
T₂ = T₁ × (D₂ / D₁)¹⁰⁶- T₂: Predicted time for the new distance.
- T₁: Time achieved for the known distance.
- D₂: The new distance you want to predict.
- D₁: The known distance you have already run.
- 1.06: The Riegel endurance exponent, which accounts for the slowing of pace over longer distances.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you predict a race time?
Race times are predicted using formulas, like the Riegel model, which estimate your performance at a new distance based on a recent race time from a different distance. The formula accounts for the fact that you can't hold your 5K pace for a full marathon. Our calculator automates this to give you a realistic target.
What is a good 10K time if my 5K is 25 minutes?
If you run a 25-minute 5K, a good predicted time for a 10K would be approximately 51-52 minutes. This is because your pace will naturally slow down over the longer distance. You can use our Running Time Predictor for a more precise estimate.
Is the Riegel formula accurate?
The Riegel formula (T2 = T1 × (D2 / D1)^1.06) is a widely respected and generally accurate model for predicting endurance running performance. However, it's most accurate for distances between 3km and a full marathon and assumes you have trained appropriately for the new, longer distance.
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